In the novel Ghost Fleet, about China seizing the third island chain encompassing Hawaii and the subsequent counter-offensive, there is casual reference to Indonesia collapsing into anarchy and fragmentation after a second Timor war. The novel is written by technologists, but their casual assumption reflects widely held views about the fragility of the Indonesian state. In the real world, this fear is part of the standard history, threat assessments and doctrine of the security sector in Indonesia. It is also mentioned in statements ending many Indonesia-Australia ministerial meetings, with each vowing not to interfere in the internal affairs of the other, and it motivated the two security treaties negotiated between them. But is Indonesia really so fragile and, if so, why and to what degree?...
