Indonesia's Presidential Election: Different Candidates, Similar Presidents

It is unclear who will win Indonesia's July 9 presidential election, but it is fairly clear what the presidency will look like. Recent electoral polls show former Jakarta Gov. Joko "Jokowi" Widodo with a 4-percentage point lead over his opponent, Prabowo Subianto, who has climbed up from a 30-percentage point deficit in March. Of course, polling estimates are not always reliable.

But it may not matter: The result will not fundamentally alter Indonesia's national strategy. Though the candidates differ markedly, as do their visions of the kind of government and leadership the archipelago needs, the next administration will be shaped less by the attitudes, desires and policy preferences of its president than by pressures and constraints on his country. These will converge on Indonesia within the next 5-7 years, which may well be a watershed moment in the country's political evolution.