ASSESSMENTS

Iran Losing Influence in Iraq

Jan 10, 2013 | 12:06 GMT

Iran Losing Influence in Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (L) and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at a summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran in August 2012

BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/GettyImages

Summary

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's heavy-handed attempts to consolidate power have finally triggered a backlash from the country's Sunni minority, putting the ruling Shiite community on the defensive. The government's use of anti-terrorism laws to marginalize its opponents sparked an uprising in Sunni areas that has been ongoing for weeks. Occurring alongside a Sunni armed rebellion in Iraq's western neighbor, Syria, the unrest is destabilizing the regime in Baghdad.

In addition to unsettling Iraq's Sunnis, al-Maliki's moves have disrupted Iran's strategy for managing Iraq — a strategy that depends on balancing various Shiite factions. And with the Sunni revival in Syria encouraging a Sunni resurgence in Iraq, Tehran has no good options to deal with the rising threat and is struggling to prevent the gains it made in Iraq over the last decade slip away.

Tehran is scrambling to find a political solution as the threat of sectarian violence in Iraq grows....

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