On Geopolitics

Iran May Be Weak, But Its Strategy Is Working

Reva Goujon
VP of Global Analysis, Stratfor
Sep 12, 2019 | 08:00 GMT
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani leads a Cabinet meeting in Tehran on Sept. 11, 2019.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani leads a Cabinet meeting in Tehran on Sept. 11, 2019. The standoff between the United States and Iran might soon be returning to square one.

(IRANIAN PRESIDENCY/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Over the past three months, the U.S.-Iran conflict has gone from Washington's campaign of "maximum pressure" against Tehran to Iranian provocations that called the White House's bluff (and brought the region to the brink of war in the process) to a French-tailored diplomatic opening. Bloodied but unbowed, Tehran has endured Washington's sanctions, demonstrating to U.S. President Donald Trump that it has no intention of entertaining any of the United States' demands until it receives sanctions relief. The question now is whether, amid the glimmer of possible negotiations, the White House actually relents on sanctions or chooses to double down on its maximum pressure campaign to force through what it wants. That, however, is only likely to return the two foes to a stalemate -- and lead the Islamic republic to kick off a new cycle of tensions in the hopes of finding succor for its ailing economy....

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