ASSESSMENTS

Iran May Up Its Aggression as the U.S. Expands Sanctions

Nov 4, 2019 | 09:30 GMT

An Iranian cleric walks past a mural painting of the Iranian flag in Tehran on Aug. 27, 2019. Iran has adopted an aggressive strategy in response to increased U.S. sanctions pressure.

(ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

Despite the United States trying to maintain some level of commitment to allow for humanitarian trade with Iran, its broadening scope of sanctions has largely closed the window through which Tehran could easily import food and medicine.
Recent U.S. sanctions on Iran's central bank and a money laundering designation under the USA Patriot Act risk further complicating any future negotiations that might arise between the two countries.
Iran is likely to continue its defiant response to widening U.S. sanctions, and the next six weeks offer Iran several possible opportunities for conducting attacks against Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the Middle East.

Although Iran has not been clearly behind or involved in a major attack on Persian Gulf oil and gas infrastructure (or on a non-oil target) since the Sept 14 drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil production facilities, the risk of further escalation remains as the United States maintains its "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign against Iran and the status quo continues. In fact, there will be ample opportunity over the next six weeks for matters to get worse, starting with Iran's expected announcement on Nov. 7 that it is taking additional steps away from its commitments under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal....

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