ASSESSMENTS

Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

May 5, 2026 | 14:54 GMT

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.
An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

(AFP via Getty Images)

Iran's attacks on the United Arab Emirates and shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz will significantly stress the fragile U.S.-Iranian ceasefire, increasing the risk of renewed direct hostilities that would likely include the tit-for-tat targeting of regional critical energy and civilian infrastructure. The United Arab Emirates' Ministry of Defense said on May 4 that the country had come under attack by Iranian drones and missiles, with Emirati air defenses actively engaging incoming threats. Iranian projectiles appear to have triggered a fire at an oil facility in Fujairah, while multiple commercial vessels were also targeted, including a South Korean-operated ship that reportedly suffered a fire and explosion. Separately, U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper told reporters that several U.S. destroyers had transited the Strait of Hormuz and were operating inside the Persian Gulf. Cooper added that Iranian forces opened fire on U.S. warships and commercial vessels, prompting the U.S. military to...

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