The current trajectory of the Middle East crisis suggests the most likely outcome is a tenuous ceasefire in a few weeks, but a more immediate ceasefire or one that takes longer to achieve is also possible, depending on the level of U.S. political resolve to maintain its campaign against Iran. The joint Israeli-U.S. attacks on Iran that began on Feb. 28 mark the fourth major overt assault on Iranian territory in the past two years, following 12 days of Israeli attacks (which the United States eventually joined) in June 2025 and two rounds of Israeli missile barrages in 2024. Each of these cycles of escalation has resulted in a wider target set and greater regional impact, but each has also ended in an informal ceasefire, either declared overtly or implicitly. Diplomats from across the region and the world are already working on finding a path to try to de-escalate the...
