ASSESSMENTS

Iran Will Find Retaliating Against the U.S. Easier in the Middle East

Jan 7, 2020 | 20:13 GMT

Relatives of the five Israeli victims of a suicide blast that targeted a bus of tourists in Bulgaria mourn in Sofia on Aug. 28, 2012.

Relatives of the five Israeli victims of a suicide blast that targeted a bus of tourists in Bulgaria mourn in Sofia on Aug. 28, 2012.

(DIMITAR DILKOFF/AFP/GettyImages)

Highlights

  • Iran and its proxies have a long history of plotting attacks against the United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iranian dissidents around the world.
  • Despite the long list of attempts in the post-9/11 era, only one attack has resulted in fatalities.
  • Iran will continue to plan attacks, and it or its proxies may occasionally succeed — especially against soft targets.

Outside the Middle East, Iran is still a threat, as demonstrated by its repeated attempts to attack its rivals in Europe, East Africa, Eastern Europe and even Southeast Asia. Iran's intelligence assets and its operatives with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah are constantly at work conducting surveillance on targets around the globe -- especially in places not typically associated with the Iranian threat -- in preparation for future attacks. But they have struggled with operations in hostile environments, showing that they need to improve their clandestine terrorist tradecraft. Because of these difficulties, their track record outside the Middle East in the 21st century isn't nearly as impressive as their record within the region. Nonetheless, they are trying, and occasionally landing blows successfully, especially against soft targets in places where their attack cycle activities aren't being watched for and detected. ...

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