Iran's Arc of Influence in Jeopardy

After the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and removal of Saddam Hussein, Iran's geopolitical influence increased dramatically. The replacement of Hussein's Baathist regime with a Shia-dominated government neutralized the historical threat on Iran's western border and brought Mesopotamia back under Tehran's influence for the first time in nearly five centuries. By the end of 2010, Iran possessed an arc of influence stretching to the Mediterranean through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon via its proxy Hezbollah.

But 16 months into the Syrian uprising, Iran now faces its worst geopolitical crisis since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq: the potential loss of an allied regime in Damascus and with it much of the influence in Lebanon and Iraq that Tehran has spent the past three decades building. Syrian President Bashar al Assad is likely to eventually be removed from power, either by force or through a negotiated settlement, and although Iran can live without the al Assad clan, it wants whatever leader succeeds al Assad to remain similarly aligned with Tehran. However, if Syria is lost, Hezbollah and other Iranian allies may begin to recalculate their relationships with Tehran, which could seriously erode the Islamic republic's position in the region. Iran is now weighing or actively pursuing several options to retain its influence as the situation in Syria deteriorates.