U.S. Senitors Mark Kirk and Robert Menendez are leading a faction in Congress that says it will follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's lead when it comes to dealing with Iran. Although U.S. President Barack Obama has sworn to veto any bill that imposes additional sanctions on Iran, Republican House Speaker John Boehner bypassed the White House and invited Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress to lobby for the bill. The hope is that a few words from the Israeli leader himself — backed by an ardent Israeli lobby — could sway a few more congressmen, mustering the 67 votes needed to overturn a presidential veto.
However, there are undoubtedly several figures within Israel's military and intelligence establishment who would prefer not to go down this path and who place more importance on maintaining a close relationship with Washington than on antagonizing Israel's only patron. The U.S. administration will rely on these splits to undermine its congressional adversaries who argue that the nuclear deal is a betrayal to the U.S. alliance with Israel.
In Tehran, hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will use the apparent rift in the U.S.-Israeli relationship to argue that this U.S. administration is an unreliable negotiating partner. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is already gearing up a campaign to undermine his opponents and diminish the corps' role in the political landscape. Still, the Iranian leadership will have to contend with the question of whether it can sustain support for a rapprochement with the United States when it knows economic relief will come only gradually. Should an obstinate Congress override the U.S. president's veto power, doubts will only deepen across the upper echelons of Iranian power.
The onus remains on the U.S. and Iranian negotiating teams to keep focused on their task and build the momentum behind an agreement that will set Washington and Tehran on a steadier path toward normalization. In fact, Iran's negotiations with six world powers — the United Kingdom, China, France, Russia, the United States and Germany — have been usurped by a U.S.-Iranian bilateral negotiation, with both sides meeting again Jan. 23-24 in Zurich to follow up on the previous week's talks. Obama and Rouhani have their heels dug in for a multi-layered negotiation that could extend beyond their own presidencies. Realizing that this process will take time, both leaders are trying to put enough momentum behind the diplomatic track to make normalization between the two countries inevitable in the long run, despite the obstacles.
