Iraq: Al-Sadr's Long-Term Plans

Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced that his movement will hold a major protest in central Baghdad on June 27 against what he describes as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's attempts to become a "semi-Saddam" by seeking nomination for a third term as prime minister. This announcement comes alongside al-Sadr's continued calls for a no-confidence vote.

Al-Sadr is not necessarily trying to unseat the prime minister; such a move could jeopardize Shiite dominance of the Iraqi central government. Rather, he is using al-Maliki's growing disfavor in the country to advance his own long-term partisan goals. However, several factors will prevent al-Sadr from dominating the Iraqi Shiite political establishment.