Iraq Insurgency: Rise of the Shia

On Dec. 13, 2003, U.S. troops found former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein hiding in a hole near Tikrit, his hometown. Hussein's capture was heralded as a turning point in the war, a sign that coalition forces were indeed making progress against the insurgency. A year later, STRATFOR reflects on an insurgency that has taken on a distinct life of its own. In the wake of the deadly attack against U.S. forces Dec. 21 in Mosul, we conclude this series of analyses with part four, a look at Shiite insurgents. The importance of Shiite insurgents in Iraq lies in their potential — what they are capable of doing rather than what they have done. While nationalist guerrillas will continue to have a greater effect on the U.S. military in Iraq, the war's most defining moments will be shaped by the Shiite leadership, who can call for a general Shiite uprising any time they wish. Over the next year, if the overall insurgency is not subdued, then the United States will face some tough decisions in Iraq.