Iraq Insurgency: Underestimating Nationalism

On Dec. 13, 2003, U.S. troops found former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein hiding in a hole near Tikrit, his hometown. Hussein's capture was heralded as a turning point in the war, a sign that coalition forces were indeed making progress against the insurgency. A year later, STRATFOR reflects on an insurgency that has taken on a distinct life of its own. In the wake of the insurgency's deadliest attack against U.S. forces Dec. 21 in Mosul, we continue this four-part series with part two, a look at the nationalist guerrilla movement. Of the three main guerrilla movements in Iraq — nationalist, Shiite and jihadist — the first makes up the core and leadership of the insurgency. It might not always be that way — not if the Shiite community rises en masse — but the Iraq war is being shaped by a well-trained, Sunni-led militant nationalist movement that essentially has nothing to lose.