Iraq, a historical crossroads between major empires to the east and west, is once again caught in the middle of a battle among regional powers looking to protect their own interests. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iran has maintained its dominant foreign influence in Iraq, a status quo that was only reinforced after the withdrawal of U.S. troops in 2011.
Now, however, Iran's standing may not be so assured. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has pushed through several reforms that have increasingly challenged Iran's role in the country, creating an opening for other states in the region to make a play for greater leverage in Iraq. But Iran will not back down without a fight. Tehran will use every tool it has, including proxy forces, to guard its interests in Iraq.
Widespread discontent with Iraqi governance has created the opening needed to enact significant change in the country. Al-Abadi, with the support of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has taken advantage of that opening to implement several key reforms that have politically distanced Iraq from its overbearing neighbor. In turn, Iran — alarmed by the turn of events in a country that has long served as the linchpin for Tehran's projection of power in the Middle East —has begun to push back against the reforms that Iraqi leaders are now pursuing.
Sensing an opportunity to enhance their own influence in Iraq, Gulf Cooperation Council members led by Saudi Arabia have taken steps to curry favor with the al-Abadi government. After 25 years of diplomatic absence, Saudi Arabia will open an embassy in Baghdad and a consulate in Arbil on Sept. 24, after the conclusion of the Eid al-Adha holiday. Other Gulf states are not far behind; on Sept. 11, Qatar selected its future ambassador to Iraq.
Several of the GCC states, including Saudi Arabia, may try to raise their standing in Iraq by offering to mediate talks between Baghdad and Iraq's Sunni tribes. Qatar, for instance, hosted a large group of Iraqi lawmakers earlier this month in what it called an "Iraqi reconciliation initiative." The Iraqi government and the Gulf Cooperation Council also share the goal of limiting Iran's influence in Iraq while undermining the Islamic State's power in the region. Because plunging oil prices have exacerbated Iraq's fiscal crisis, delaying security forces' paychecks, rich Gulf states could ingratiate themselves with Baghdad through loans or grants, including the $500 million of aid that the Gulf Cooperation Council has already allocated for Iraqi refugees.
Other regional powers like Turkey and Jordan have also begun to show an interest in improving their ties with Iraq. Turkey's relationship with President Massoud Barzani's Kurdistan Regional Government is deteriorating. Ankara has also resumed a military campaign against the Kurdistan Workers' Party and strained its economic arrangement with Arbil, boosting Turkey's interest in expanding cooperation with Iraq further. Ankara is already courting several Iraqi officials, including former Iraqi vice presidents Usama al-Nujayfi and Iyad Allawi during their recent visits to Turkey. Meanwhile Jordan, facing a growing Islamic State threat on its borders, is seeking greater security coordination with Iraq to combat the militant group's spread. Stratfor sources indicate that Jordan has increased its cooperation to counter Islamic State encroachment on Iraqi-held posts on the two countries' shared border.
