Ireland's government parties are facing the political cost of spending cuts and tax hikes made during the bailout years. The country's GDP per capita is still below its pre-crisis levels, and while economic recovery has been particularly strong in Dublin and other urban areas, it has been much weaker in rural areas. For example, unemployment in Dublin and its surrounding areas is around 8 percent, while in the southeast and the Midlands it tops 12 percent.
In many of the countries that have received financial assistance since the beginning of the European crisis, economies and politics are moving in different directions. While most economies are growing again, their populations are punishing traditional parties and supporting new, often anti-establishment political forces. For the most part, voters are pressuring their leaders to resume public spending after years of austerity.
Main opposition forces are suffering a similar fate: Fianna Fail, which was in power when Ireland requested the bailout, and Sinn Fein, which has a left-wing and anti-establishment stance similar to that of Spain's Podemos and Greece's Syriza parties, are stagnating in polls. In the meantime, small parties, including the Independent Alliance, the Social Democrats, Renua Ireland and the Workers' Party, are currently attracting one in five votes. It is not enough to challenge the establishment but it serves as a reminder that many voters are unhappy with the traditional politics of most parties.
Surveys also show that many Irish want to see more spending on social services. According to a recent opinion poll, the Irish are more worried about health services, unemployment and affordable housing than about the stability of the economy. The next administration in Dublin, regardless of what coalition is formed, will have to slow the pace of fiscal austerity.
The Irish have many reasons to be optimistic, though. The country has left the worst years of its financial crisis behind: Unemployment is dropping, and its economy grew by an impressive 6.9 percent in 2015, by far the fastest rate in the European Union. According to Eurostat, Ireland will continue to see robust growth rates in 2016 and 2017 as its per capita gross domestic product slowly returns to its pre-crisis levels. But Ireland's problems are far from over, and the decisions made by governments before and during the bailout program, in place from 2010 to 2013, will affect voters' behavior in general elections on Feb. 26 and beyond.
