On Security

The Islamic State in 2017: Rotting From the Outside In

Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor
Jan 12, 2017 | 08:03 GMT
The scene of an explosion on Aug. 20, 2016, in Gaziantep, Turkey, after a late-night militant attack on a wedding party that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Islamic State was behind.
The scene of an explosion on Aug. 20, 2016, in Gaziantep, Turkey, after a late-night militant attack on a wedding party that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Islamic State was behind.
(AHMED DEEB/AFP/Getty Images)

The Islamic State has entered into a slow decline that will continue throughout 2017. After its inception, the group was able to energize the jihadist movement and draw thousands of enthusiastic foreign fighters by announcing the creation of a caliphate and assuring its followers that the end of the world was near. This enabled the Islamic State to rapidly amass manpower and capabilities -- at least at first. But both time and geography have worked against the organization since its initial proclamation of a caliphate and an impending apocalypse....

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