Islamic State: Adding Franchises, Not Capabilities

Fears of an expanding Islamic State have again emerged, though perhaps unnecessarily. On March 7, Nigeria's Boko Haram militant group formally pledged its allegiance to the Islamic State in a video purportedly released by Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. Reports emerged simultaneously that Somalia-based al Shabaab is now divided over whether to align with the Islamic State or remain loyal to al Qaeda. The Islamic State will likely next formally acknowledge Boko Haram's pledge through a prominent spokesman, as it has done in the past with similar realignments.

Boko Haram's move has provoked a great deal of international concern that the Islamic State is extending its global reach, but that would be an exaggeration. The Boko Haram announcement — and other recent pledges — neither increases the Islamic State's capabilities within its self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria nor directly increases the threat of Boko Haram.