The Islamic State Gains Ground Near Baghdad

The head of the council in the Iraqi province of Anbar said in an interview Oct. 6 that 3,000 members of the Islamic State had moved into the area around Ramadi and Fallujah. His estimate is probably exaggerated, but it is accurate to say that militia movements have allowed for gains along this front in the past week.

The front around Ramadi and Fallujah is the most threatening to Baghdad. It was the origin of the most recent crisis with the Islamic State, it has always been one of the strongest points of resistance for Sunni militancy, and most important, it is mere kilometers from Baghdad. The threat to Baghdad is real, but coalition air power and the concentration of Shiite security forces will prevent the threat from becoming existential. The most likely Islamic State offensive into Baghdad would involve an unconventional attack.