ASSESSMENTS

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Presents Challenges for Baghdad

May 15, 2014 | 16:13 GMT

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Presents Challenges for Baghdad
Anti-government fighters in Fallujah, Anbar province, on Jan. 21.

(-/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

A shift in the activities of militant group Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIL, within Syria over the past year and growing Sunni frustration with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's policies pose challenges for the Iraqi government reminiscent of those following the ouster of Saddam Hussein. But the recent developments do not signal an immediate threat to Iraq's sectarian balance. ISIL attacks have yet to expand beyond the group's demonstrated area of operations, the group has not been able to directly confront security forces at hardened facilities and the central government still maintains powerful levers with which to counter expanding ISIL influence. Yet ISIL is showing early signs of an improved capacity to weaken Baghdad's control over Sunni regions and spark more violent sectarian strife across Iraq.

In recent weeks, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has been particularly successful at striking important pillars of Iraqi stability such as oil pipelines, bridges, power generation facilities, water infrastructure and civil society buildings. Maintaining control over these facilities is critical for Baghdad's ability to exert influence across a fragmented state.

The jihadist militants are working to foment sectarian conflict, but do not yet have the capability to seriously threaten the government....

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