ASSESSMENTS

Is an Israel-Egypt Conflict on the Horizon?

Sep 23, 2025 | 17:40 GMT

Egyptian army vehicles are deployed along the border with the Gaza Strip on July 4, 2024, in the north Sinai Peninsula.
Egyptian army vehicles are deployed along the border with the Gaza Strip on July 4, 2024, in the north Sinai Peninsula.

(AFP via Getty Images)

Egypt's military buildup in the Sinai Peninsula will not trigger a war with Israel. Still, the risk of sporadic border incidents in the coming months will be heightened. If Egypt does not reduce its military footprint, Israel could force it to diversify its energy supply by suspending a major energy deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly asked U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his Sept. 14 to 16 visit to Israel to pressure Egypt to reduce the number of Egyptian troops it has stationed in the Sinai, according to a Sept. 20 Axios report citing U.S. and Israeli officials. The disclosure came after Egypt deployed around 40,000 troops to the Sinai in late August to boost its military presence near the Gaza Strip border in a coordinated effort with the Israeli army ahead of Israel's expanded ground operations in Gaza. While Israel cautiously coordinated on the troop increase,...

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