ASSESSMENTS

Is the Syrian Stalemate Between Iran and Israel About to End?

Apr 13, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

An Israeli army vehicle drives on the road along the border fence that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights and Syria on July 19, 2017.

An Israeli army vehicle drives on the road along the border fence that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights and Syria.

(MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • As uncertainty about future U.S. action against Iran increases, Iran and Israel will seek to deter each other along Israel's northern border.
  • Iran will aim to prevent a direct Israeli attack against the Islamic republic by building up bases in Syria and Lebanon, while Israel will seek to undermine this threat by pushing the United States to take action against Tehran.
  • Israel will accept the dangers of a regional war so long as the United States provides direct cooperation against Iran.

Hundreds of kilometers of Syria and Iraq separate Israel and Iran, but the civil war in Syria has brought the two foes nose to nose. Early on April 9, Israel struck the Tiyas (T4) air base northeast of Damascus. To some, it appeared that Israel was acting on behalf of the United States in retaliating against the Syrian government's alleged use of chemical weapons. In reality, Israel was in pursuit of other quarry: Iran and Hezbollah, which have redoubled their efforts to challenge Israel along its northern border....

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