COLUMNS

The Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol Attack in Context

undefined and Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE
Ben West
Stratfor Global Security Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Jan 22, 2021 | 10:00 GMT

A National Guardsman monitors a security checkpoint near the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2021, in Washington.

A National Guardsman monitors a security checkpoint near the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 20, 2021, in Washington.

(Nathan Howard/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • While the events of Jan. 6 were extraordinary, even a brief review of political violence in the United States over time shows that lower levels of government face a graver threat than their better defended federal and state counterparts.
  • As we continue to see a polarized domestic political environment inflamed by rapid communications and a declining consensus on what constitutes facts, we can expect unrest in many forms: from the peaceful to the violent, from the anarchic to the coordinated.
  • Risks will likely manifest more often at the local and state level, and key factors to watch include the intersection of political grievances at the local, state and federal government levels; involvement of federal and state security agencies in local conflicts; and future elections at the state and/or local level.

The history of mob violence and insurrections in the United States suggests that local governments are more vulnerable than their federal and state counterparts....

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