Jiang Zemin's Health and Chinese Political Stability

Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin's absence from a July 1 celebration of the Communist Party of China's 90th anniversary has renewed rumors of the 84-year-old former leader's declining health. If these rumors are true, it could weaken the influence for Jiang and his followers ahead of a 2012 transition to the fifth generation of Chinese leadership. However, since the eras of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, China's top political leaders have ruled through group consensus, and the key succession plan was all but preordained. Therefore, Jiang's health problems — and impending death — will have much less impact on China's policy direction than the death of previous leaders.