GRAPHICS

Jihadist Attack in the Sinai Peninsula

Aug 6, 2012 | 19:57 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Jihadist Attack in the Sinai Peninsula

Eight Islamist militants attacked an Egyptian military unit stationed at a border checkpoint with Israel on Aug. 5, killing 16 soldiers. The militants then commandeered two Egyptian military vehicles and broke through the checkpoint into Israel near the town of Kerem Shalom. Israeli forces pursued the vehicles and neutralized them within about 15 minutes, preventing any significant damage in Israel. Violence in the Sinai has increased dramatically since former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's ouster in February 2011. Attacks on natural gas pipelines have reduced Israel's access to energy from the Sinai and militants have conducted a number of attacks against Israel from the Sinai. The Aug. 5 attack resembles an attack on Aug. 18, 2011, when militants from Gaza infiltrated Israel via the Sinai and killed eight Israelis near the town of Eilat. The recent attack was not as successful at targeting Israelis as the 2011 attack, parlty because Israel has significantly increased its security presence and infrastructure along the border with Egypt and was well-equipped to deal with the attack. However, that Israel incurred few casualties does not mean the attack was a complete failure for the militants; as attacks along the border increase, Israel has more reason to distrust Egypt's ability to secure the Sinai. Israel allowed Egypt to increase its military presence in the Sinai in 2011 beyond the terms outlined in the 1979 peace treaty, but if conflict in the Sinai brings adversaries uncomfortably close, the neutrality of the space quickly erodes. Militants in the region opposed to Israel are eager to destabilize the neutrality and are using violence to do so. They see the current, more volatile political environment in Egypt as a prime opportunity to capitalize on their attacks. The deterioration in Egypt's ability to maintain security will result in increased tensions and more opportunities for the militants to conduct attacks.