High-profile jihadist attacks in Mali portend a further fragmentation of state authority, and while jihadists are unlikely to forcibly seize power in the coming months, their escalating kinetic and economic pressure increases the risk of a military coup and will incentivize the junta to develop new security partnerships with the United States and Turkey. On April 25, al Qaeda affiliate Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, launched coordinated attacks across northern, central and southern Mali, including in and around the capital Bamako. Attacks in Bamako and its vicinity targeted Modibo Keita International Airport and the garrison town of Kati, which acts as the Malian military's nerve center. In Kati, jihadist militants raided the residence of junta leader Assimi Goita, forcing him to be exfiltrated, killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara in a truck explosion attack, and injured intelligence chief Mobido Kone, who allegedly later succumbed to his wounds (though this remains...
