ASSESSMENTS

Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant's Next Target

Jun 17, 2014 | 12:09 GMT

Jordan Could Be the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant's Next Target
Iraqi tribesmen gather in Baghdad to show their readiness to join Iraqi security forces in the fight against militants on June 16.

(Photo credit should read AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, buoyed by its recent successes in Iraq, wants to expand its regional reach. Reports that Iraq has withdrawn forces from western towns close to its 180-kilometer (110-mile) border with Jordan have left Amman feeling vulnerable, and the Hashemite kingdom, certainly a target of interest for the jihadist movement, has deployed additional security personnel along the border.

However, taking on Jordan would be tough for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. The group has the ability to stage terrorist attacks in the country, but significant constraints will prevent it from operating on the levels seen in Iraq and Syria.

The militant group cannot assume the same posture in Jordan that it has in Syria and Iraq, but it can deploy its urban terrorism capabilities there....

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