Jordanian elections rarely herald change. This is by design: The small, constitutional monarchy prides itself on remaining placid even as its neighbors are consumed by apocalyptic instability. But Sept. 20 elections for the lower house of parliament will be held under a new voting system that signals a shift.
Since 1993 elections, Jordanians have gone to the polls under a "one person, one vote" system, which favored conservative, tribal interests and establishment parties. The new "bloc voting" method for choosing lawmakers is in essence a return to the system used in 1989 elections, when Islamist parties won a majority. While bloc voting will not bring systemic change to Jordan, it will provide a window into the nation's mounting demographic challenges, in particular its minority and refugee populations. The new system has also brought Islamist parties back to the table after their 2010 and 2013 boycotts.
The Jordanian government hopes that the reform will enhance its legitimacy and curb political unrest, even if it risks lending more power to Islamist forces. Amman knows that parties like the Islamic Action Front generate a lot of popular support, and the establishment has no intention of allowing Islamists to sweep the polls. But instead of suppressing them, the new system aims to dilute their power. To this end, the government has encouraged more parties than ever to compete. And it has worked — on Sept. 20, candidates from 49 parties will stand for election. Islamist politicians, though, are pragmatic and also intend to adapt to the new rules. Numerous parties from that camp are running, each appealing to different constituencies. The Islamic Action Front candidates will be competing with independent Islamist candidates from the offshoot Zamzam movement, which appeals to youth, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood Society, which split off in 2015 and emphasizes nationalism and draws in Jordanian (as opposed to Palestinian) supporters. Islamist candidates across the board are running in those three-person minimum joint lists that include female, Christian and minority candidates, a unique departure from previous years of Islamist campaigning.
Over the next few weeks of campaigning leading up to the election, several indicators will be key in determining whether the government's reform has generated enough interest to ensure crowded polls and mollify the public. The campaign will play out on college campuses, where aggressive political campaigns are trying to drum up votes, as well as in traditional Islamist strongholds like Palestinian camps and neighborhoods in the cities of Amman, Irbid and Zarqa. Depending on how these constituencies vote, the election could be a disappointing flop for the government or a chance to build up its diminished legitimacy.
