ASSESSMENTS

Kenya's Militia Allies in the Somalia Incursion

Nov 1, 2011 | 00:00 GMT

STRINGER/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

The Kenyan military has continued making progress on its incursion into Somalia launched in mid-October to crack down on Islamist militant group al Shabaab, taking the port of Bur Gabo on Oct. 28. Kenya's operation is heavily dependent on foreign intelligence and logistical support, but even more significant is its reliance on local militias. The militias fight alongside the estimated 4,000 Kenyan troops involved in the operation but also serve to legitimize the operation in the eyes of the local population and provide intelligence. Al Shabaab understands that Kenya's reliance on these groups is a potential weak point in its plan and has attempted to turn Somali residents (and perhaps the militias as well) against the Kenyan military incursion through appeals to nationalism and religious duty. The loyalty of these militias — which, while hostile to al Shabaab at present, have numerous divisions and rivalries among themselves — will be critical to the military incursion's success.

Kenya's dependence on local militias in its incursion into Somalia against al Shabaab is a potential weak point in the operation. (With STRATFOR map)...

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