ASSESSMENTS

As Lebanese Protests Rage On, Regional Suitors Hedge Their Bets

Nov 1, 2019 | 09:30 GMT

Lebanese riot police officers remove anti-government protesters as they dismantle a roadblock in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Oct. 31, 2019. Traffic came to a standstill on major highways, as protesters erected metal barricades.

Police officers forcefully remove protesters from an Oct. 31 demonstration in Beirut. The unprecedented anti-government rallies in Lebanon are entering their third week.

(ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The growing push for systemic political change in Lebanon, if successful, could weaken the proxy positions of Iran and its regional adversary, Saudi Arabia. 
  • Iran has built up the most political capital in Lebanon via Hezbollah and thus has the most at stake, should the current unrest continue apace in the months ahead.
  • Outside powers like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could hold off on providing support if they believe that it could bolster Hezbollah's position.

As the size and scope of the anti-government protests in Lebanon grow, so too has the sense that a Pandora's box may be opening for the country's ruling elite. Stoked by the country's increasingly dire financial situation, the widespread anger that has taken root across Lebanon has seemingly reached the point where any government decision perceived as either a piecemeal promise or surface-level solution risks only adding fuel to the fire. This has, in turn, left Beirut's leaders with little means to regain its citizens' trust, barring the kind of sweeping political reforms they're now demanding on the streets.  The protesters face an uphill battle in accomplishing their ambitious goals of structural change, as past attempts to enact even small political reforms in Lebanon have proven largely unsuccessful. But given the demonstrations' intensity and momentum, there's a chance the unrest could turn into a full-fledged political movement that tangibly shifts Lebanon's government over...

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