Assessments

Lebanon Stands on the Edge of Spiraling Violence

Ryan Bohl
Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Stratfor
Thomas Abi-Hanna
Global Security Analyst, Stratfor
Jan 17, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
Lebanese police walk by a bank vandalized during protests in Beirut on Jan. 16, 2020.

Lebanese riot police walk past the branch of a vandalized bank in Beirut after anti-government protesters took to the streets on Jan. 16. As the violence grows, so will the odds that armed sectarian factions will confront the demonstrators.

(ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images)

As anger over an underperforming economy grows in Lebanon, the tactics used by its pan-sectarian protest movement are becoming more violent and disruptive. The development, in turn, is increasing pressure on the country's political factions to find a counter. With Lebanon under a caretaker government until Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab can form his own, there is little chance the country's recession, a major driver of protest anger, will ease -- nor will corruption be addressed. That could trap Lebanon in a spiral in which acts of vandalism and violence may increasingly become the outlet for the frustrations of ordinary Lebanese of all sects, leaving its sectarian politicians who don’t want to give up their power and privileges to increasingly entertain employing force to counter the protests....

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