ASSESSMENTS

Lebanon's Problems Will Exceed Its New Cabinet's Grasp

Emily Hawthorne

Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE

Ryan Bohl

Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE, Stratfor

Thomas Abi-Hanna

Global Security Analyst, Stratfor

Jan 23, 2020 | 21:31 GMT

Lebanese President Michel Aoun (R) heads the first meeting of Prime Minister Hassan Diab's (C) newly constituted government in Beirut on Jan. 22, 2020. Lebanon's woes extend beyond changing the people at the top.

(AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

A new Cabinet under Hassan Diab will not offer enough of a change to end the protest movement that is dominating Lebanon's political life, impacting its unsteady economy and hurting its security stability.
Lebanon could become more isolated, as well as the target of U.S. sanctions, given that the Hezbollah-aligned March 8 alliance will play a large role in Diab's government.
The government will not solve Lebanon's economic woes, but it will prioritize the import of necessary goods in a bid to discourage popular unrest.

Lebanon finally has a new government but still no particular path out of its predicament. Prime Minister Hassan Diab, named his Cabinet on Jan. 22, but major hurdles remain, especially as the country's poor economy and security issues are unlikely to improve any time soon. Domestically, the new government must face down a persistent protest movement while avoiding blowback from the rivals it chose to exclude from power. And externally, the country is now facing potential U.S. sanctions, potential cuts in American military aid, as well as likely diplomatic isolation at a time when its economy needs all the help it can get. Given such obstacles, it is unclear how long the new government will last. And more worryingly for the region, Lebanon's economic and political contagion could infect neighboring countries who rely on Beirut’s economic linkages, particularly Syria. ...

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