In Libya, Fighting Gives Temporary Boost to Oil Production

Libyan crude oil production has increased dramatically in recent weeks, surging from a low of about 200,000 barrels per day to government claims of over 900,000 barrels per day by Sept. 25, the highest volumes in over a year. This boost in production coincides with some of the highest levels of violence and militia fighting since the 2011 revolution that ousted former leader Moammar Gadhafi. This is because Libya's energy sector is primarily — and paradoxically — benefiting from a shift of focus by the country's armed groups toward other targets, allowing for expanded exports in the short term.

However, Libya's recent successes in oil production are almost certainly temporary. The country's overall trajectory is still headed toward regional infighting, tribal competition and a looming showdown over control of Libya's large hydrocarbon resources, not an improvement in the overall stability or security of the country. While Libyan militias are currently focused on bigger issues than fighting over oil production, entrenched divisions between the various armed groups still do not bode well for the country's ability to sustain high export volumes in the long term.