ASSESSMENTS

In Libya, A New Offensive Could Disrupt the Oil Industry's Status Quo

Apr 12, 2019 | 05:15 GMT

A Libyan fighter loyal to the Government of National Accord mans a heavy weapon mounted on a pickup truck during clashes with Libyan National Army forces south of Tripoli's suburb of Ain Zara on April 10, 2019.

A Libyan fighter loyal to the Government of National Accord mans a heavy weapon mounted on a pickup truck during clashes with Libyan National Army (LNA) forces south of Tripoli's suburb of Ain Zara on April 10. After a two-year cease-fire in Libya, LNA Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter launched an offensive on Tripoli on April 4.

(MAHMUD TURKIA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Over the last three years, Khalifa Hifter and his Libyan National Army have gained a stranglehold over Libya's oil infrastructure.
  • However, Hifter does not control the flow of oil revenue, which is managed through the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli. Hifter will take steps to try to gain that control.
  • Much of the central bank's oil revenue is distributed in the form of civil salaries throughout the country, which sometimes pay militias fighting Hifter.
  • The longer the Libyan civil war continues, the more likely it is that Hifter's forces will consider cutting off oil production to limit financial support for his adversaries.

The decision by Libyan National Army (LNA) Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter to launch an offensive on Tripoli has sent shockwaves through the Libyan political system. The operation started just a week before a scheduled UN-backed National Conference that aimed to facilitate national elections in the divided country, which had previously been under a nearly two-year cease-fire. The longer fighting goes on, the more likely it is that the Libyan oil industry will be used as leverage in some way. ...

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