Libya: Oil Declines as Regional Power Structures Crumble

With Libya's top legislative body struggling to reach agreements with its counterparts in regional power centers such as Zintan, Misurata and Benghazi, the country is suffering from a sustained drop in oil production and a deteriorating security environment. Part of the problem relates to further fragmentation of Libya's political landscape, and the central government is hoping that local council elections across the country will help stabilize its political and security environment enough to revive Libyan oil production.

Recently, Tripoli announced that it would extend registration deadlines for nearly 100 local council elections that have been delayed for months due to weak voter interest. The central government's urgency about holding local elections reflects its growing reliance on a widening pool of disparate rural authorities — a departure from its post-revolutionary model of working with larger regional power centers to maintain a fragile peace. Just as Tripoli has been struggling with the limits of its own weakened authority, regional governments are having similar difficulties maintaining control of their own militias and tribal groups, making a sustainable return to stability in Libyan politics or oil production unlikely for the foreseeable future.