Libya: Western Oil Production Restarting, but Underlying Challenges Remain

On May 12, Libya's state-owned National Oil Corp. announced that agreements had been reached with various tribal and militia authorities to resume oil production in western Libya, perhaps within the day. International energy markets have responded optimistically; improved relations between Tripoli and local authorities in the country's western region could increase national oil production by some 500,000 barrels per day, up from the current levels of around 150,000 barrels per day.

Renewed production would provide much-needed income for the weak central government in Tripoli, as well as energy relief for the city as summer temperatures begin to rise. However, Libya's political environment is still not conducive to long-term stability, and the broader competition for authority is far from over. Fluctuations in Libyan oil production in the coming months are likely.