The Likely Implosion of a Rebel Group in the Congo

The Tutsi rebel group that was capturing cities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo mere months ago, M23, may be on the verge of imploding. The roots of the crisis go back several years, but it took off after a disagreement over how to respond to the recent creation of a security framework between several countries in the region to end the violence in eastern Congo. In an attempt to move forward with negotiations with the government in Kinshasa, Sultani Makenga, the leader of M23's military wing, on Feb. 27 removed the group's political leader, President Jean-Marie Runiga, who represents a faction of M23 unwilling to accept Kinshasa's existing terms for a settlement. Runiga was accused of "high treason" for receiving advice from Bosco Ntaganda, a warlord — and former Tutsi rebel leader — who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and misappropriation of funds, among other things.

More important, Makenga also announced that the group was preparing to arrest Ntaganda. In response, troops loyal to Runiga and Ntaganda attacked Makenga's base near Bunagana on March 1.

The widening divisions within M23 could lead to a disruption in the balance of power in North Kivu, the Congolese state on the Rwandan border where M23 and other rebel groups have the most influence. Regional destabilization could justify the rapid mobilization of an African intervention force, reducing the pressure on the Congolese military to dismantle the threat alone and enabling the government to focus on its many other issues.