Maduro's End Would Be Just the Beginning of Venezuela's Road to Recovery

Feb 13, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

Supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido take part in a rally to let in U.S. humanitarian aid, in Caracas on Feb. 12, 2019.

Supporters of Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido rally in Caracas.



  • Extensive U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector will sharply cut the Nicolas Maduro government's revenue over the next few months.
  • The Venezuelan president's continued reluctance to step down will increase the threat of U.S. military intervention, as well as the likelihood of a successful coup attempt in 2019.
  • Efforts to turn military forces against Maduro will require amnesty negotiations in which the United States and the opposition will have to agree to reduce the risk of prosecution and extradition for key Venezuelan military officials.
  • Though necessary to successfully unseat Maduro, the opposition's bargain with Venezuela's military could also cement corruption in the country's energy sector and further complicate its economic recovery.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his political allies are under siege by the resurgent national opposition and now face crushing economic pressure from the United States through heavy sanctions. As Venezuela's crisis advances, the opposition and the United States have all the more incentive to increase their pressure, placing the Maduro government in an untenable situation. There's a good chance that by the end of the year, an interim government -- buttressed by military officers and their units that abandon their support for Maduro -- will be in power in Caracas. But any new government will be left to fix Venezuela's crippled economy and end enduring corruption from the Maduro administration, risking its success....

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