ASSESSMENTS

Mainland China's Imposition of Security Laws In Hong Kong Will Spark Protests

Evan Rees

Asia-Pacific Analyst, Stratfor

May 22, 2020 | 20:20 GMT

An anti-extradition bill protest in Hong Kong on June 12, 2019.

(Dave Coulson Photography/SHUTTERSTOCK)

Highlights

The Chinese central government's decision to circumvent the Hong Kong legislature and impose long-delayed national security laws in Hong Kong will spark unrest there.
The legislation is part of the longer term trend of increasing mainland control over Hong Kong, a trend accelerated by the outbreak of massive protests last year.
While the move will complicate China-U.S. relations, U.S. President Donald Trump's reelection bid means he will try to preserve the phase one trade deal.

The Chinese central government's decision to circumvent the Hong Kong legislature and impose long-delayed national security laws in Hong Kong will provide a major rallying point as protests rebound following COVID-19. In terms of U.S.-China relations, an uptick in demonstrations and the high-profile erosion of Hong Kong's autonomy will provide another trigger that could derail the phase one trade deal, although the White House will be careful not to subordinate its China policy to a single issue such as Hong Kong....

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