Contributor Perspectives

The Making of a Black Swan

Ian Morris
Board of Contributors
Nov 1, 2017 | 08:00 GMT
Around 1510, German theologian and reformer Martin Luther, second from the left, sits with his contemporaries.

Around 1510, German theologian and reformer Martin Luther, second from the left, sits with his contemporaries. When Luther nailed his Ninety-Five Theses to a church door 500 years ago, he triggered one of the biggest black swan events in history.

(HULTON ARCHIVE/Getty Images)

When Martin Luther nailed his Ninety-Five Theses to a church door 500 years ago, he triggered one of the biggest black swan events in history. But any forecaster of his time could have predicted what would happen next -- even if Luther had never been born....

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