The declining socio-political status of the Chinese community in Malaysia could eventually upset the country's delicate ethnic power balance. The past decades have seen a drop in the Chinese population as a share of the total population (from 32.8 percent in 1983 to less than 25 percent in 2013), and this figure is projected to decline further in the coming years to less than 20 percent in 2040. Meanwhile, the ethnic Malay and Bumiputera demographic is growing at a faster rate than all of the other demographics, and will reach over 50 percent by 2040. Even when all of the demographic growth rates begin to decrease in 2030-2035, the Malay and Bumiputera growth rate will not decline as steeply as the other groups' growth rates.
The rise in the Malay portion of the population, along with the simultaneous fall in the Chinese portion, has had an impact on Malaysian politics. The ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, dominated by ethnic Malays, has ruled the country for decades by claiming to unite Malay, Chinese and Indian parties. But the Chinese party has weakened, and Chinese voters have swung dramatically toward the opposition in the 2008 and 2013 elections. While Barisan Nasional may want to win back Chinese votes, given the Chinese community's higher levels of wealth and influence in business, it will be increasingly difficult for the ruling Malay-dominated Barisan Nasional coalition to risk alienating its base by cutting back on its long-held policy of Malay nationalism. By the same token, the Chinese party has become the biggest party within the ruling opposition, creating a predicament for Chinese voters who have abandoned the ruling coalition but risk being sidelined in the opposition camp.
Therefore Malaysia's politics are becoming more ethnically polarizing — the Chinese are increasingly mustering behind the opposition, while the support of the Malay majority is keeping Barisan Nasional in power. This is perhaps the greatest long-term challenge to Malaysia's stability. Though the country remains far more stable than many of its neighbors, the ethnic divisions at play in its domestic politics are a worrying sign.
