ASSESSMENTS

Mali: Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb's Limited Transport Routes

Nov 5, 2012 | 11:30 GMT

Mali: Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb's Limited Transport Routes
Nigerien soldiers on the road between Agadez and Arlit, Niger

ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb's operations in the Sahel gravitate around three principal towns in northern Mali: Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal. The group is able to travel among these cities, and to a lesser extent slightly beyond them, to exchange personnel, supplies and hostages and to facilitate operations. However, fixed locations in the urban centers of northern Mali make AQIM vulnerable, as does travel along established road networks. Relocating would reduce AQIM's visibility to coalition forces but undermine AQIM's tactical preference of maneuvering forces quickly. 

The balance of jihadist forces in northern Mali is such that without the introduction of external pressure, AQIM will retain a citadel-type posture, which the Malian army alone is unable to breach. External stakeholders, such as the Malian government and the Economic Community of West African States, will consider political efforts to undermine and fracture an AQIM-Tuareg alliance. In the absence of compelling pressure from these stakeholders, survival and criminality will bind AQIM and Tuareg rebels and leave northern Mali beyond the reach of government authorities.

The jihadist group faces hostile forces and difficult terrain....

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