ASSESSMENTS

Mali: The Conflict Enters a New Phase

Feb 4, 2013 | 14:30 GMT

Malian troops enter Timbuktu on Jan. 28

ERIC FEFERBERG/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Now that French forces have fended off a jihadist push into southern Mali and have driven militants out of northern Mali's main population centers, the Malian conflict appears to be entering a new phase. During this phase, France will make way for African forces and will put renewed focus on re-establishing the Malian democratic process and spurring negotiations between Bamako and Mali's Tuaregs. The coming weeks and months will entail an intervention largely in line with what was planned before the militants' own offensive, which prompted the French intervention.

Meanwhile, militants are withdrawing to mountainous regions, where they will maintain the ability to mount an insurgency that could threaten military forces and civilians in northern Mali. Offensive military operations will continue to try to degrade and disrupt al Qaeda-linked groups and prevent them from fleeing farther to Algeria, Niger and Libya. 

Mali's military junta needs legitimacy as France transfers security responsibility to African forces....

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