In Mali, Jihadist Preparations for the Looming Intervention

Recent engagements between Islamist militias and the Malian military are likely, in part, a struggle to set the terms of the looming Western-backed, African-led military effort to uproot jihadist groups in the country. Currently, government forces are attempting to reestablish control over strategic areas, especially around the Mopti airport in the town of Sevare, that could serve as staging grounds for the intervention. The thrust of that mission — pushing into the territory held by al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and its local proxies in northern Mali, disabling their capabilities and denying them sanctuary there — remains challenging, but the addition of considerable support from France and Germany appears likely to prevent jihadist militias from holding territory south of the Niger River.

The jihadists, in turn, are likely seeking to expand the battlefield to prepare for a fighting withdrawal. Meanwhile, reports from northern Mali indicate that the jihadists are prepping their territory with munitions caches, improvised explosive devices and strategically located bases. At this point in the conflict, neither side would benefit from getting caught up in heavy fighting ahead of the expected intervention. However, recent activities shed light on how the militants likely plan to slow down intervening forces, possibly attempt to hold key positions along the Niger River and ultimately defend from the mountains along the Algerian border.