Mali's Challenges in Taking On a Divided Rebellion

Two senior Malian officers said June 5 that the military would soon begin an offensive against the Tuareg rebel groups that took control of territory in northern Mali during the chaos following the country's March military coup. The announcement comes amid rumors that the various rebel groups are negotiating to form an alliance against the Malian government.  

Though the shape of any such alliance remains unclear, the two largest militant groups — the secular National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad and the Islamist Ansar Dine — are said to be participating in the talks. These groups may eventually form a loose nominal confederation, but their deep divisions on ideology, tactics and objectives will prevent any durable, serious alliance from developing unless the groups face a common existential threat. Despite its statements about a looming offensive, the Malian military is unlikely to pose this sort of threat because it is currently dealing with political challenges in Bamako and lacks the resources or capabilities to launch a sustained military campaign in the north without external support.