Many of the broader trends discussed in Stratfor's annual and quarterly cartel updates continued through the third quarter. In particular, the polarized nationwide conflict between Los Zetas and the Sinaloa Federation persisted through the quarter. This conflict could be complicated if the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, once under the control of the Sinaloa Federation, was to begin acting independently. Los Zetas, now led by Miguel "Z-40" Trevino Morales, continued their fight against other criminal organizations aligned with the Sinaloa Federation, namely the Knights Templar, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and the Gulf cartel. The Sinaloa Federation continued to defend its strongholds, including northern Sinaloa state and Jalisco state, from Los Zetas and Zetas allies. No new wars over territory started in the third quarter, but incursions that began in previous quarters continued, and some signs have emerged of a potential challenge to the Sinaloa Federation in northern Sonora state. Northeastern Mexico saw significant upheaval during the past quarter due to several key arrests and killings of Zetas and Gulf cartel leaders. With just one quarter of 2012 remaining, overall levels of violence in Mexico look as though they are set to be lower than in 2011. January through August 2012 saw 14,070 homicides compared to 15,331 homicides during the same period in 2011, though the 2012 figures are still much higher than the 11,942 reported homicides during the same period in 2010. Recent shifts involving Los Zetas, the Gulf cartel, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion and the Knights Templar could cause the rate of violence to increase during the fourth quarter. The quarter will also see the Dec. 1 inauguration of Mexico's next president, Enrique Pena Nieto. Pena Nieto has discussed plans to reduce overall violence by 50 percent in the first year of his presidency by creating a national gendarmerie, transferring military troops to the federal police and increasing the military's focus on violent crimes. Whether those plans will be pursued remains to be seen, and any significant shifts in military and law enforcement policies probably will not occur until 2013.
