The cartels across Mexico continue to become more fractured and numerous, particularly in the central and Pacific regions. As we discussed in the last quarterly update, the Beltran Leyva Organization (BLO) no longer exists as it once did. The newer cartels, which began as factions of the BLO, continue to fight each other as well as the Sinaloa Federation and, in most cases, Los Zetas. From Durango and Zacatecas south to Nayarit, Jalisco and Michoacan states and into Guerrero's coastal port of Acapulco, seven different groups of varying sizes and organizational cohesion are fighting to the death for the same overlapping regions. Clashes were particularly severe in three areas of Mexico during the second quarter: Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas and Veracruz states; southern Coahuila, through Durango, Zacatecas, San Luis Potosi and Aguascalientes states; and the Pacific coast states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacan and Guerrero. In the northern states, conditions remained fairly unchanged over the last quarter, though cartel-related deaths in Juarez did not reach the severe level anticipated by regional law enforcement. STRATFOR's sources in the region say there has been a diminishing military presence in Juarez, which has led to fewer cartel-related deaths, though the Sinaloa Federation and the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes organization (VCF, aka the Juarez cartel) have not let up in their battle for the Juarez plaza. STRATFOR expects an escalation of violence in Tamaulipas state, where the military suddenly replaced municipal (and some state) law enforcement personnel with federal troops in 22 cities in mid-June. The same sort of dynamics in play in Tamaulipas were seen in Juarez in 2009, and we anticipate a similar long-term reaction over a much larger region encompassing the urban areas of Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa, Rio Bravo, Matamoros, Valle Hermoso, San Fernando and the state capital Ciudad Victoria. We expect to see increasing violence in all of these cities for as long as the military presence remains, with larger escalations in Nuevo Laredo, Reynosa and Matamoros because they sit astride the most valuable smuggling corridors along the easternmost 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) of U.S. border. While federal troops have not replaced municipal police in neighboring Nuevo Leon state, violence will also likely escalate in Monterrey and the surrounding region given its key location and strategic importance. Here the Zeta presence is being challenged by the Gulf cartel, which seeks to enlarge its foothold in the city and expel the entrenched Zetas.
