ASSESSMENTS

Mexican Drug Cartels: Government Progress and Growing Violence

Dec 11, 2008 | 15:31 GMT

Summary

To download a PDF of this piece Click here. Mexico's war against drug cartels continues. What began nearly two years ago with President Felipe Calderon's inauguration has since escalated in nearly every way possible. The past 12 months, in particular, have seen some significant developments as a result of Calderon's campaign. Weapons and drugs have been seized, key members of drug cartels have been arrested and greater cooperation has been established between Mexico and the United States. Despite the genuine hurdles presented by Mexico's bureaucratic infighting and rampant corruption, there is simply no denying that the government has disrupted the cartels' operations in meaningful ways. One result of these achievements has been greater volatility in the balance of power among the various drug trafficking organizations in Mexico. During at least the past five years, the criminal environment had been characterized by bipolar domination, with the Gulf cartel on one hand and the Sinaloa cartel on the other. Mexico's security forces' relentless focus on the Gulf cartel has damaged the organization's capabilities, leaving a vacuum of power that other cartels have sought to fill. It is still too early to determine which cartels will be left on top once the dust has settled, but what is clear is that this past year has been a year of flux for the cartels. The year has also seen a shift in the geography of drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere, nearly all of which is attributable to the situation in Mexico. One of these shifts involves the increasing importance of Central America. After the Mexican government implemented greater monitoring and control of aircraft entering the country's airspace, airborne shipments of cocaine from Colombia decreased by an estimated 95 percent. Maritime trafficking has decreased more than 60 percent. Consequently, Mexican traffickers have expanded their presence in Central American countries as they have begun to rely increasingly on land-based shipping routes to deliver drugs from South American producers. In addition — and likely as a result of the more difficult operating environment — Mexican drug trafficking groups have also increased their operations in South America to begin providing drugs to markets there and in Europe. One apparent paradox for the Calderon administration has been that, even while the government has clearly succeeded in damaging the cartels, the country's security situation has continued to deteriorate at what appears to be an unstoppable rate. The total number of drug-related homicides has continued to increase while the violence has continued to escalate in several ways, including high-level assassinations, beheadings, use of a growing arsenal of cartel weapons and the indiscriminate killing of civilians. The deteriorating security situation certainly has the attention of the Calderon administration. The government is considering the implications of increasing casualties, not only among security forces but also among civilians. In addition, the initial strategy of relying on the military only over the short term appears increasingly unfeasible, as police reforms have proven far more difficult to achieve than the administration anticipated. Despite the costs, Calderon has shown no sign of letting up. Assistance from the United States will begin increasing as the Merida Initiative is implemented, but there is only so much that Washington can do given Mexico's reluctance to allow the United States to establish a stronger security presence on its territory.

In this addendum to our series on Mexico, Stratfor takes an in-depth look at the country’s drug-trafficking organizations in 2008, which has been a year of flux for the cartels. <em>(With Stratfor maps)</em>...

Keep Reading

Register to read three free articles

Proceed to sign up

Register Now

Already have an account?

Sign In