On Security

In Mexico, Presidents Come and Go but Cartel Policy Stays the Same

Scott Stewart
VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor
Jul 13, 2017 | 08:00 GMT
Mexico's military patrols in southwest Mexico

The army patrols Guerrero state in southwest Mexico after fighting between two regional drug cartels erupted in June 2017. President Enrique Pena Nieto has proposed a paramilitary police force to replace the military force deployed against the cartels.

(SERGIO OCAMPO/AFP/Getty Images)

A serious challenge from populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador awaits Mexico's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in next year's presidential election. That's what polling data and the close results of the June 4 gubernatorial election in Mexico state suggest as Lopez Obrador looks ahead to a third presidential run in July 2018 after second-place finishes as the candidate for the Party of the Democratic Revolution in 2006 and 2012. Now leading his own party, the National Regeneration Movement, Lopez Obrador is in a statistical tie in recent polls with the PRI and National Action Party candidates. As we've discussed the possibility of a Lopez Obrador victory with our contacts in Mexico, we've noticed that many of them believe he would seek to undertake a dramatic change in the way the government deals with Mexico's powerful criminal cartels. The idea is that as president, Lopez Obrador would seek to address Mexico's violence...

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