Ethiopia's failure to pay a Dec. 11 Eurobond coupon significantly raises the risk of an external debt default, but either way, the country will likely face an extended and painful economic recovery period as it seeks a relief deal with the International Monetary Fund and external debt restructuring under the Group of 20 (G-20) Common Framework, prolonging investor disinterest and socioeconomic hardship. Ethiopia missed a $33 million interest payment due Dec. 11 on its December 2024 Eurobond. If the country does not make the payment within the 14-day grace period, it will become the third sub-Saharan African nation to default on its external debt since the COVID-19 pandemic following Zambia and Ghana's defaults in 2020 and 2023, respectively. On Dec. 8, Ethiopia's finance ministry said it was ''not in a position to pay'' the interest payment due to the country's ''fragile external position'' and the fact that discussions held with a...
