ASSESSMENTS

A More Assertive Ukraine Returns to Russian Natural Gas

Feb 12, 2018 | 13:46 GMT

A worker walks among pipes and valves at the Dashava natural gas facility on September 18, 2014 in Dashava, Ukraine. Moscow has historically offered -- or withdrawn -- natural gas price discounts based on Ukraine's political decisions.

(SEAN GALLUP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Ukraine will again purchase Russian gas, but Moscow will not be able to use energy supplies as leverage against Kiev to the same degree that it used to.
Pipeline politics remain a divisive subject in Europe, and Eastern European countries like Poland will continue to push back against key Gazprom projects on the Continent, including Nord Stream 2.
Gazprom's market share in Europe is unlikely to decline, but its ability to carve up the Continent and use energy exports as a political tool will diminish.

For years, Russia has politically manipulated natural gas exports to Ukraine, adopting a carrot-and-stick approach in raising or reducing the price of much-needed energy at will. Ukraine has been spared the need to import natural gas from Russia's Gazprom since November 2015, but the country is once again beating a path to Moscow's door to purchase natural gas. This time, however, the situation has changed: Ukraine is buying Russian natural gas, yet its achievement of strategic objectives in recent years means it is unlikely to ever be as dependent on Moscow's energy resources again -- even as the issue of Russia's natural gas exports continues to loom large in European political discussions....

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